The Ukrainian government is actively engaging in discussions with the European Commission regarding the extension or modification of trade conditions with the EU to prevent a return to the previous terms that were in place before 2022. This could lead to a decrease in Ukrainian exports to the EU by $1.5 billion.

Source:  "European Truth"

Details:  If no new EU decision is made by June 5, the provisions of the Association Agreement will automatically resume, which experts estimate could significantly reduce Ukrainian exports to the EU.

According to research by Veronika Movchan and Ricardo Jucci, the losses for the Ukrainian economy in this case could reach $1.5 billion or nearly 4% of the total export volume.

However, the European Commission is firmly committed to maintaining and improving trade conditions.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen assured Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during their meeting on April 9 that the new trade parameters between Ukraine and the EU would be better than those that existed prior to 2022.

This is planned to be achieved through a review of the current free trade regime according to Article 29 of the Association Agreement.

The Ukrainian side emphasizes that the format of the future agreement is not crucial. The main goal is to preserve and strengthen access for Ukrainian goods to the European market.

"For us, it does not matter under what framework the future trade regime between Ukraine and the EU will be defined. Whether it will be autonomous preferences, as before, or an expanded free trade regime according to Article 29 – what matters is the outcome, not the labels," officials stated.

Reminder:

  • On May 13, 2024, the EU Council approved the extension of preferential trade with Ukraine for another year – until June 5, 2025, after a lengthy negotiation process.
  • Regarding the future format of trade relations between Ukraine and the EU, preliminary agreements were established to integrate the conditions for duty-free trade into the Association Agreement with the EU.
  • In February 2025, First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stated during a joint meeting of the European Commission and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine that Ukraine's primary task in 2025 is to finalize consultations on trade liberalization with the EU according to Article 29 of the Association Agreement.